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HUCAKBEE IS A THREAT.
There's a lot of great commentary on the blog today about Mike Huckabee. There are two things, though, that I think we have to deal with which we haven't fully addressed. First, Huckabee could easily be the nominee (at least one poll has now shown him leading in Iowa and another shows him within striking distance in South Carolina). He stands to inherit pretty much all of Thompson's support and possibly a good deal of Romney's. Some people have suggested he doesn't have enough of an organization to go beyond the January votes, but he's gotten this far with almost no money and he'll presumably raise a decent amount if he starts winning primaries. It could be that, as Kevin Drum says, hating unions is more important than hating gays, but, while that may be true in general, I think the specific dynamics of this race make Huckabee very viable.
Second, he's potentially the strongest Republican candidate because he's just so gosh darn nice. The public now tends to see Republicans as dishonest, angry, and violent and I think that, as the more they get to know Giuliani(the other potentially strong Republican candidate) the more he'll fit into that image. Huckabee is the anti-Giuliani in almost every respect. His foreign policy views seem pretty moderate--he's still peddling a we-broke-it-so-we-have-to-fix-it argument on Iraq, but he doesn't seem keen to invade anyone else--and the club for growth hates him. Also he hasn't, to my knowledge, used any government agencies to finance any affairs. Moreover, Huckabee is just nice. I mean I like the guy even though he stands for all the things I'm against and so I can only imagine what most Americans would think. Of course I'd much rather have Huckabee as president than Giuliani, but we should still be afraid of him because of the revitalizing effect he could have on the Republican party.
--Sam Boyd
COMMENTS (8)
Then too you have to wonder if after being elected president he'd drop the facade and revert to his old mendacity following the Wayne Dumond affair and show the terrible judgment of his ritually anti-Clinton governorship.
Posted by: parsec | November 28, 2007 5:02 PM
Presidential elections are decided by state. Is there any state Al Gore or John Kerry carried that Huckabee could possibly carry? The answer is none, and that pretty much gives the Dem the 270 electoral votes she or he will need.
Huck's brand of fundamentalism plays badly with Catholics, for example, which puts a close Bush state like Ohio pretty much out of reach for him. Virginia is increasingly dominated by the DC suburbs, which are increasingly Democratic, and increasingly rejecting candidates like the Huck -- ask George Allen, who was 2006's version of Huckabee. Hard as it may be to believe Indiana may even be in play.
The Huck looks like a tough sell in Nevada, as well, where they cash in on the kind of vice he's agin. Florida also looks less than promising. The current GOP governor is not cut from Huck's jib or even Jeb's jib.
Hell, against Hillary, the Huck would have a tough time in Arkansas, which has come regret its embrace of Bush.
Hillary is smashing Guiliani in New York in California, according to SUSA polls out today, and taking the Huck by 40 points in New York. Of the ten largest states, Huckabee would have a good chance only in Texas, with Florida ify and the rest Gone With the Wind.
The public has seen the faux right wing country boys in power for 8 years and doesn't like it a bit. They aren't going to elect another one anytime soon.
Ask NBC, who can't figure out why the well-regarded "Friday Night Lights" has been a complete ratings disaster. The public has come to loath Bush and that loathing has been transferred to Texas as well. People won't watch a show about Texas, even a good one.
If Huckabee's the nominee, Election Night 2008 is really going to be the Night They Drove New Dixie down.
Posted by: Edward Furey | November 28, 2007 5:24 PM
"we should still be afraid of him..."
It's sad if you really mean "afraid". The left should be aware of what Huckabee is doing but not afraid. A less cruel, more populist Republican party is 100% good news for America and if Huckabee makes things more challenging for Democrats than Democrats need to step up their game.
Posted by: joejoejoe | November 28, 2007 5:36 PM
"the terrible judgment of his ritually anti-Clinton governorship."
Oh, that's too bad. I was just thinking he could run with Hillary and then they could really revitalize the Republican Party.
I'm sure she'd be tickled pink.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 28, 2007 6:06 PM
"I mean I like the guy even though he stands for all the things I'm against"
True enough. He's also the only economic populist in the GOP field, and next year is going to be a recession. We've been wondering why Red State voters back their "values" over their economic interests. In '08 they may have a nominee who doesn't force them to choose.
The Republicans can't win, but the right nominee could boost turnout to the point where the GOP holds on to some House and Senate seats it would have lost. If so, our side doesn't get our filibuster-proof majority and the country suffers.
Posted by: Kyle | November 28, 2007 6:57 PM
it's going to be either Romney/Huckabee or--more likely--Giuliani/Huckabee.
And it'll be a scary and evil campaign and God Help Us All if they cheat their way into the WH.
Huckabee has made it clear that the Bible beats the Constitution in his eyes--and his actions.
Posted by: amberglow | November 28, 2007 7:32 PM
(i'm also betting, that Cheney steps down "for his health" and they install Rudy as Veep sometime early in 08.)
Posted by: amberglow | November 28, 2007 7:35 PM
"Huckabee has made it clear that the Bible beats the Constitution in his eyes--and his actions."
I don't know that you can say that. He agreed to put people to death for the state in Arkansas and couldn't give an answer to the "WWJD?" question about death penalty at the YouTube debate, leading me to think that he thinks he DDWJWD, but he did it anyway.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 29, 2007 9:40 AM