DINGELL/WAXMAN: THE FIRST VOTE

Brian Beutler reports that the House steering committee has voted 25-22 to recommend Rep. Henry Waxman replace Rep. John Dingell as chairman of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee. It was a close vote, but still a surprising victory for the insurgent Waxman. Short background: Dingell and Waxman have clashed on climate change issues, with Dingell, who represents Detroit, supporting automakers and Waxman more intent on reform. ThinkProgress has a good breakdown here.

On the advice of some in-the-know sources, I had predicted earlier that Waxman would be in trouble when it comes to the full vote thanks to the more moderate character of the newer member classes, but I'd love to be wrong. Following up after today's vote, a few things come up:

One, the Steering Committee may not be as representative of the caucus as a whole as we like to think. Although Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been especially careful not to take a position on the fight, her close allies, like George Miller, are inclined to support Waxman. Pelosi allies obviously have an edge on the Steering Committee, which is made up of the various House leaders. A close win there could be a close loss for Waxman in the caucus.

Two, things have changed in the last five days, with Waxman's whip operation being much more aggressive in reaching out to members. Dingell, confined to a wheelchair, has not been courting members in gatherings like yesterday's leadership elections with as much energy as his challenger.

Three, hypothetical vote counting aside, tomorrow's vote is a secret ballot. Many members who might owe Dingell a favor or be somewhat worried about Waxman's approach might vote for a new chairman simply because, well, it's a change election. Whereas last week I was hearing nothing but bad news for Waxman, this week there has been shifting, with some people suggesting he may well pull it out. As Buetler notes, today's vote could well be a harbinger of that trend.

--Tim Fernholz

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