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The group blog of The American Prospect

THINKING ABOUT THE AGENDA.

The first step of an Obama administration isn't too hard to map: an expansive economic stimulus package that includes job-creating infrastructure investments, either in a lame duck session before the inauguration or immediately thereafter.

But once you get past that, it's unclear what the next rank priorities will be. Transitioning out of Iraq will be a big part of the foreign policy package, as will addressing the evolving strategic challenges of Afghanistan. At home, things get more complicated. Financial regulation laws need to be passed, and tax cuts for the middle class is a key campaign promise Obama will be pressured to fulfill. The president-elect has suggested energy independence will be a major early initiative, presumably including investment in renewable sources, but any legislation is unlikely to include cap-and-trade, which seems to be emerging as the most difficult item to pass in this Congress. Health care reform is critical and many (like Ted Kennedy) will want to see it brought forward in the first hundred days, or the first year at the latest. And comprehensive immigration reform is also an issue that could be raised in the next year or two.

What do you think Obama's first priorities will -- or should -- be?

-- Tim Fernholz



COMMENTS

SCHIP - day one (literally). It's already written and passed both houses, just run it through again. Dare McConnell and the GOP fucks to filibuster it. It's hugely popular.

Then move on to a stimulus package focused on the lower and middle classes -- UI benefits, food stamps, etc.

Employee Free Choice Act--the single most important piece of legislation to rebuild our middle class.

First stimulus, as you suggest, the infrastructure component of which should have a strong emphasis on energy (e.g. upgrading the power grid, investments in both research AND capacity for alternative energy) and telecommunications (e.g. dramatically expanded broadband access) rather than transportation (which will & should get some new money as well, but ideally more for maintenance & upgrades of existing infrastructure rather than new highways).

Second, health care reform - get that squarely on the table before Obama has to submit his first budget proposal (so that everyone will be prepared for the eye-popping deficit that will likely be in it). Try to get some early consensus in the Senate on the broad outlines, and test the reaction to a range of cost estimates

Third, a plan to end the occupation of Iraq & revive our strategy in Afghanistan (coming out ideally around the same time as the first budget, so that they can show some budget savings from that source & help undercut the neo-Hooverite assertions that Obama's not 'serious' about the deficit).

Fourth, the big budget battle to deliver on some version of the middle-class tax cut (a crucial credibility test for Obama & the new Congress), end the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest (essential for keeping the long-term deficit within bounds) & authorize the funds for everything else. Focus a lot on the metric of "public debt as a percentage of GDP" and show that curve starting to turn downward over 10 years, to combat the argument that a really high deficit right now means profligacy forever.

By then we'll be in late 2009. Congress will be ready to pause for a moment & the Administration will be working feverishly to implement all of this stuff. People will see the stimulus starting to have an effect, they'll be starting to count up the benefits of health care reform & middle-class tax relief, and hopefully the economy will have touched bottom - so they should be starting to feel a little better about where the economy's heading in 2010.

At that point, start talking a lot about responsibility, about how now that we've survived the worst of an economic crisis we have to steel ourselves to take on more long-term challenges - like what kind of a planet we'll leave to our children, and whether they'll be as vulnerable to oil oligarchs as we have been. At that point, maybe people will be ready to hear a pitch for energy independence that focuses on independence from oil & other carbon-based fuels, rather than merely importing less of them or being choosier about who we buy them from. Set that up as the big legislative issue for 2010, and hammer home that a fundamental principle of any energy independence strategy needs to be responsibility: both environmental and fiscal. Cultivate some champions for this in the House (for whom 2010 will be an election year), and have them roll out a good cap & trade proposal (with auctions & a progressive offset), with the narrative already set up that it's about being responsible & tackling big, long-term challenges (just like we did with health care & the other accomplishments of 2009).

Note that i'm not saying hold off on cap&trade until 2010 because it's less important, but rather that the political groundwork for it needs to be laid more carefully & i think it's an issue where the right kind of substantive response will be really hard to implement in the teeth of a bad recession.

After immediate stimulus (state help, unemployment extension, etc.), (1) put tax revision (yes, "tax reform," and this time it really is) in place ASAP to provide feel-good to almost everyone, (2) per his website, pass and sign card-check and Kentucky River reversal (union strength) to quiet the progressives -- and couch it as reversing the dangerous trends towards inequality, and ending easy violation of the labor laws by unscrupulous employers; (3) start (and invite) national debate on the elements health insurance by passing his program, with stated goal of finished product no later than September of the year (2009) -- not on whether there will be one (the country is behind Democrats on that, probably 75-25) but how it should work to creat the best result; (4) immediate discussions with Petraeus, al Maliki, key allies on Iraq exit (including Middle East friends) and could-be at least civil friends); small immediate transfer from Iraq to Afghanistan with Defense/Petraeus concurrence and guidance.

Middle Class Rescue Plan:
(1) middle class tax cut
(2) healthcare
(3) finance reform

Do it as a package within 6 months.

We need to stop thinking about health care reform being separate from a stimulus package. Every premium dollar saved by Americans, is a dollar that can be spent.

If the Dems were to pass a single-payer plan and set the premiums at $100 per month for an adult, and $0 for a minor, the stimulus would be enormous, and IMMEDIATE. In addition, the freedom from corporate-benefit-slavery would create a tremendous boom in entrepenurial activity.

If the Dems follow this up with a massive infrastructure program, this would be all we would need for a stimulus.

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