Mike Castle, the Latest Self-Inflicted GOP Casualty?

Crack reporter Dave Weigel is surprised by news that Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden and putative Senate candidate, has suddenly jumped into a five-point lead over Delaware Representative Mike Castle, the popular moderate Republican who is the state's only representative to the House. Delaware is a blue state, with a seven-point advantage for Democrats, and Castle is in trouble in part because of "negative publicity [Castle] received in the state after casting a ‘no’ vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress.” Castle also voted against the stimulus and for the Stupak-Pitts amendment.

It's not that surprising, though. Castle was/is considered a very strong contender for the vice president's old Senate seat, but he's only popular in Delaware so long as he is a moderate Republican. Now that he's joined the rest of the House Republicans in opposing President Obama's agenda, his moderation has to be called into question. At some point, the Republican leadership is going to have to ask themselves what forcing their entire caucus to vote against each major Obama agenda item is getting them. Voters are already pretty clear that Republicans oppose the Democrats' vision, but when GOP leaders turn every vote into a litmus test for the moderate members of their caucus, it's going to have electoral results that end with fewer Republicans in office. Those votes don't really help Castle on the right, either -- the usual crowd is already lambasting Castle for his moderate reputation, and, of course, there is a conservative primary challenger.

It should go without saying, but the usual poll caveats apply for an election set to take place a year from now.

-- Tim Fernholz