Why Incumbents Should Worry: Economic Edition.

Champion guest-blogger Suzy Khimm checks in on Connecticut state politics below, suggesting that Republican success across the state should make Dems, and in particular embattled Senator Chris Dodd, nervous. In particular, she highlights Michael Pavia, Stamford's newly elected Mayor. But even according to the article Suzy links to, it's clear his race has less to do with "Democrat versus Republican" and more to do, unsurprisingly, with local issues:

STAMFORD -- City native Michael Pavia, who promised voters he will strive to limit property tax increases and improve basic city services, won a landslide victory Tuesday over Democrat David Martin, becoming the first Republican to win the mayor's seat in 14 years.

...In his campaign, Pavia tried to paint Martin as the mayor's "rubber stamp" and voiced complaints that the city has lost focus on basic city services, such as road paving and sidewalk repair, while allowing property taxes to rise.

Pavia said the Malloy administration focused too much on bringing in big businesses while ignoring the needs of small business owners. He has not shied away from calling for major changes to the city charter, saying he favors term limits and an overhaul of the city's master plan.

Indeed, in New Jersey and Virginia voters were saying much the same thing. New Jersey voters were focused on the economy and the state's high property taxes; Virginia voters were concerned about unemployment. It's not a question of ideology or even party; it's a question of incumbency. (In fact, the only race driven by ideology, NY-23, went to the Democratic candidate.) That's an important distinction to make because it highlights the choices that incumbent Democrats have to make in the next year: Whether they continue to pursue the economic policies that have begun to demonstrate they can turn around the economy, and indeed increase their efforts with further help to the labor markets, or whether they act timidly and pursue choices that may be popular now but will end with disaster at the polls next year. Tomorrow's unemployment numbers will set the tone -- there are some signs that the number of people who lost their jobs last month will be at its lowest in some time.

Back in Connecticut, meanwhile, Dodd is in trouble because of his financial industry connections. But his new regulatory reform plan, which would create a "super-regulator" and severely diminish the Fed's powers, "stakes out an extreme position, and is likely to face major resistance, especially from the banking industry." Barney Frank told me last week he doesn't think Dodd has the votes for this, but it's a nice change from the compromise-first position asserted by the administration. It may also help save Dodd's bacon.

-- Tim Fernholz