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WHO'S AWARE OF THE NIE?
At Salon, Juan Cole writes that because the NIE has discredited reports of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, fear mongering over going to war with Iran will now disappear from the campaign trail.
Americans are not now going to fall in love with Iran, and suspicions may linger about Tehran's civilian nuclear energy research program. But voters are unlikely to take very seriously the idea that a poor, weak country of 70 million -- one lacking much of an air force and with no weapons of mass destruction -- is the most important problem that the United States faces. And if Iran is not the most important problem, then surely healthcare, the economy and getting out of Iraq are.
Let's slow things up. How many voters are even aware of the NIE story? Republican candidates aren't betting that voters have stopped fearing Iran -- rather, they're continuing to beat the war drums. Remember -- Americans have been scared of Iran since the "Axis of Evil" speech way back when. And hell, since the hostage crisis! Fred Thompson, while traveling in South Carolina, called the report politicized and suggested that American will "never" be able to trust Iran. Rudy Giuliani foreign policy advisor Daniel Pipes wrote that post-NIE, he actually believes war with Iran is more likely. Unbelievable, right?
It isn't time to relax because -- phew!! -- Iran won't be an issue in Nov. 2008. Expanding the War on Terror is far too foundational a tenet to Republicans -- they'll continue to use Iran fear to score rhetorical (and electoral) points. The Democratic candidates should be talking about Iran, in order to fact-check neoconservative claims: The NIE shows Iran is subject to diplomatic pressures. The NIE shows the Bush administration misled the American people about WMDs in Iran. And the president has misled the public into believing that the majority of foreign insurgents in Iraq are Iranian. In fact, over half are Saudi and Libyan.
--Dana Goldstein
COMMENTS (5)
"Republicans [will] continue to use Iran fear to score rhetorical (and electoral) points. The Democratic candidates should be talking about Iran, in order to fact-check neoconservative claims."
Hmmm, crazy Republicans, unnecessarily stoking our fears about Iran. Here's what Kevin Drum, noted warmonger and fear stoker had to say about the NIE:
"You can decide for yourself whether you believe the NIE, but its actual conclusions are straightforward:
Iran wants a nuclear bomb;
It has the scientific capability to produce a nuclear bomb;
It's continuing to enrich uranium;
It might decide to restart its bomb program in the future."
Seems as if these findings are ample reason for concern. Pointing these things out is not using "Iran fear to score rhetorical (and electoral) points." Seems that any reasonable candidate for President would be wise to address these issues. Dems can choose to stress some of the points Dana mentions but I believe that the average voter will be somewhat concerned about a country that wants a nuclear bomb, has the scientific capability to produce a nuclear bomb, is continuing to enrich uranium, and that might decide to restart its bomb program in the future. All the while lying to the UN about it.
That's not fearmongering - it's prudent.
And Dana, when you write that "the NIE has discredited reports of an Iranian nuclear weapons program," did you actually mean to write that the NIE CONFIRMED that Iran had a covert nuclear weapons program in place?
Posted by: sbj | December 11, 2007 5:12 PM
She is not incorrect that the NIE discredited "reports" of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, because the reports to which she refers were administration reports of a current Iranian nuclear weapons program. You know the one we had to bomb to stop WWIII.
Posted by: Anonymous | December 11, 2007 7:28 PM
"That's not fearmongering - it's prudent."
So I'm guessing that you would argue that the millions of shattered lives and hundreds of billions of dollars spent in Iraq were also a "prudent" response to a non-existent weapons program?
Posted by: brewmn | December 12, 2007 10:44 AM
NIE (November 2007):
"We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were
working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons."
Anonymous: Please point out any key judgment in the NIE concerning Iranian nuclear intentions that says, "we discredit 'administration reports' of a current Iranian nuclear weapons program."
It's very short - I'll wait here while you read it .... You won't find that, will you? And that's not what Dana wrote. Dana writes "the NIE has discredited reports of an Iranian nuclear weapons program." Which is not quite accurate or complete. The NIE discredits reports of a 'current' nuclear weapons program and CONFIRMS, with high confidence, that Iran was indeed pursuing nuclear weapons.
Iran was covertly trying to build nuclear weapons until 2003 when they halted, probably due to international pressures. We need to keep the pressure on, as the administration has been doing. In 2005 the NIE was wrong, but you can't expect the President to act contrary to the consensus estimate of our country's intelligence services. Now that we have received new information I would expect our response would be only slightly changed. We should not let Iran off the hook for deceiving the entire world - they were trying to develop nuclear weapons and they were lying about it to the UN. I think most would agree that we don't need even more nuclear weapons in the middle east.
Posted by: sbj | December 12, 2007 11:43 AM
Fact check: "The NIE shows Iran is subject to diplomatic pressures. The NIE shows the Bush administration misled the American people about WMDs in Iran. And the president has misled the public into believing that the majority of foreign insurgents in Iraq are Iranian."
The NIE shows Iran is subject to diplomatic pressures.
- Or, the NIE shows (if it's correct) that Iran responds to the threat of war only. They were happily making nukes until we invaded next door. Then they stopped. (See, also, Libya).
The NIE shows the Bush administration misled the American people about WMDs in Iran.
- Or, the French are right and the Iranians are still making nukes. Or the Israelis are right. Then again, why doubt the CIA?
And the president has misled the public into believing that the majority of foreign insurgents in Iraq are Iranian.
- Then again, most of the EFPs killing US soldiers are from Iran, says the commanders on the ground.
Posted by: PNut | December 12, 2007 12:02 PM