EXCEPTIONS PROVING RULES. With news that Republicans are pulling resources out of Ohio (and thereby imperiling incumbent Republican Senator Mike DeWine's re-election), the national buzz is that Republicans have retreated to a three-state "firewall" in Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia in defense of their Senate majority. Strategists and electoral observers, Democrats especially, may now start claiming that the very fact that Republicans are having to defend seats in these states -- two of them southern states, no less -- confirms the genius of the idea of running everywhere with equal vigor, and that doing so has drained GOP resources to the point that, even if the Republicans hold these seats in the end, it's indirectly contributing to the broader Democratic cause.
But this is crap. Looking at the two southern races, Tennessee is an open seat with a strong, smart, dynamic Democratic candidate running in a clear, Democratic tailwind cycle, and yet Harold Ford's lead is still within the margin of error. (And we all know that a certain percentage of folks will tell pollsters they will vote for a black or female candidate but, behind the curtain, won't do it.) Virginia's race has featured one of the most disaster-prone, self-destructive Republican candidacies in modern electoral history in a clear, Democratic tailwind cycle, and yet Jim Webb still trails. So, sure, the GOP is spending resources there now, but notice why: Because the safety of Democratic candidates in races elsewhere (or, alternatively, the tanking of GOP candidates there) has allowed Democrats to compete in places they normally would not. Indeed, the top five Senate targets for the Democrats from the start of the cycle -- all of which are in non-southern states (MO, MT, OH, PA and RI) -- show Democrats pulling away in all but the MO race. (Pollster.com's last-five-poll averages for the Democrats running in those five races are: +2MO, +7MT, +6OH, +9PA, and +6RI.) The same is true in the House, by the way.
The fact is, Democrats are poised to win the non-southern congressional elections for the second cycle in a row. That's right: Subtract the Texas re-redistricting and the five southern Senate Democratic retirements in 2004, and the Dems gained net seats in the non-Confederate 39 states during a presidential election they lost. As for Tennessee and Virgina, I'll put my wallet (and belly) where my mouth is, by proposing the following wager to any national pundit or prognosticator: If Dems win both Tennessee and Virginia, lunch on me; if they lose both, lunch on you; if they split, it's a push.
--Tom Schaller